Establishing and Externally Validating a Hemoglobin, Albumin, Lymphocyte, and Platelet (HALP) Score-Based Nomogram for Predicting Early Recurrence in BCLC Stage 0/A Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients After Radical Liver Resection: A Multi-Center Study

Xulin Liu,1,&ast; Zhancheng Qiu,2,&ast; Elijah Ndhlovu,1,&ast; Yunyan Wan,3 Huapeng Sun,4 Shuai Wang,5 Yugang Cao,6 Peng Zhu1 1Department of Hepatic Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 2Division of Liver Surgery, Department of General Surgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Taihe Hospital, Shiyan City, Hubei Province, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of General Surgery, Xiangyang Central Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Hubei University of Arts and Science, Xiangyang, People’s Republic of China; 5Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Jingzhou Central Hospital, Jingzhou, People’s Republic of China; 6Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Huangshi Central Hospital of Edong Healthcare Group, Huangshi, People’s Republic of China&ast;These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Peng Zhu, Department of Hepatic Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86 13907170712, Email zhupeng@tjh.tjmu.edu.cnPurpose: Early recurrence (ER) is associated with poor prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this study, we developed and externally validated a nomogram based on the hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocytes, and platelets (HALP) score to predict ER for patients with BCLC stage 0/A HCC who underwent radical liver resection.Patients and Methods: A total of 808 BCLC stage 0/A HCC patients from six hospitals were included in this study, and they were assigned to a training cohort (n = 500) and an external validation cohort (n = 308). We used univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis to identify the independent risk factors for disease-free survival (DFS). We also established and externally validated a nomogram based on these risk predictors. The nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the concordance index (C-index), the calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan‒Meier analysis.Results: Multivariate COX regression showed that HBV DNA ≥ 10,000 IU/mL (P < 0.001), HALP score ≤ 38.20 (P < 0.001), tumor size (P = 0.003), clinically significant portal hypertension (P = 0.001), Edmondson-Steiner grade (III–IV) (P = 0.007), satellite nodules (P < 0.001), and MVI (P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for post-operative tumor recurrence. The AUC of our nomogram for predicting the 2-year and 5-year DFS was 0.756 and 0.750, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.764 and 0.705, respectively, in the external validation cohort. We divided the patients into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups according to the risk score calculated by the nomogram. There were statistically significant differences in the DFS and overall survival (OS) among the three groups of patients (P < 0.001).Conclusion: We developed and externally validated a new nomogram, which is accurate and can predict ER in BCLC stage 0/A HCC patients after curative liver resection.Keywords: early recurrence, hepatocellular carcinoma, HALP score, nomogram, Barcelona Clinic of Liver Cancer staging system, disease-free survival