Global warming decreases the morphological traits of germination and environmental suitability of Dipteryx alata (Fabaceae) in Brazilian Cerrado

ABSTRACT We experimentally evaluated how different temperatures affect germination of individual seedlings of Dipteryx alata, and estimated the impact of climate change on the species using ecological niche modeling. A total of 240 seeds were randomly distributed among three different temperature treatments (32 ºC, 36 ºC, and 40 ºC), and monitored for 35 days. We measured seven seed traits and estimated the ecological niche of D. alata using a consensus of four methods. The treatment with the highest temperature produced smaller and lighter seedlings. The consensus of ecological niche modeling indicated that are expected to reduce the areas with climates favorable for D. alata in future scenarios. Thus, our two results (experiment and ecological niche modeling) are concordant, and both indicate the impact of global warming on germination (initial stage of the plant) and potential geographic distribution. Moreover, in geographic context, our experiment and ecological niche modeling indicated that north, northwest and central regions of the “Cerrado” are predicted to have lower morphological traits of germination and loss climate favorable area, since these regions are predicted to have higher temperatures (nearly 40 ºC) in future climatic scenarios.