Sensitivity of Stand-Level Biomass to Climate for Three Conifer Plantations in Northeast China

The accurate assessment of forest biomass is vital to climate change mitigation. Based on forest survey data, stand biomass models can effectively assess forest biomass carbon at large scales. However, traditional stand biomass models have ignored the potential effects of the climate on stand biomass estimation. There is still a lack of research on whether or not and in what ways the effects of the climate reduce uncertainty in biomass estimation and carbon accounting. Therefore, two types of stand biomass models, including basic stand biomass models (BBMs) and climate-sensitive stand biomass models (CBMs), were developed and tested using 311 plantation plots of Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis Siebold & Zucc.), Korean larch (Larix olgensisi A. Henry), and Mongolian pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica Litv.) in Northeast China. The two types of models were developed by applying simultaneous equations based on nonlinear, seemingly unrelated, regression (NSUR) to ensure additivity of the stand total and components biomass (root, stem, branch, and needle). The results of fitting and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) indicated that the CBMs performed better than the corresponding BBMs. The RMSEs of the stand total biomass decreased by 3.5% to 10.6% for the three conifer species. The influence of temperature-related climate variables on the biomass of stand components was greater than that of precipitation-related climate variables. The sensitivity of the three conifer species to climate variables was ranked as Korean pine > Mongolian pine > Korean larch. This study emphasizes the importance of combining climate variables in stand biomass models to reduce the uncertainty and climate effects in forest biomass estimation, which will play a role in carbon accounting for forest ecosystems.