Projections of future changes in solar radiation in China based on CMIP5 climate models

Surface solar radiation research is important for understanding future climate change and the application of large-scale photovoltaic systems. We used the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP8.5 scenario to project potential changes in surface solar radiation, surface temperatures, and cloud fractions between 2006 and 2049 in China, as well as how these changes may affect photovoltaic power generation. The results show that the following. (1) For surface temperatures, the median trends of all considered models show warming in China of 0.05 K/year. The maximum positive trends for all-sky radiation appear in the southeast of China, reaching 0.4 W/m2/year. Cloud cover exhibits a mainly decreasing trend in the overall region of China. (2) The all-sky radiation of most selected regions shows a decreasing trend. The maximum negative value (−0.08 W/m2/year) appears in Qinghai. (3) Compared with the average photovoltaic power output from 2006 to 2015, the photovoltaic power output in western China will decrease by −0.04 %/ year, while photovoltaic power output in southeastern China will increase by 0.06–0.1%/year. Keywords: Solar radiation changes, CMIP5 models, Climate change, PV output, Projections