Short-term effects of an unprecedented heatwave on intertidal bivalve populations: fisheries management surveys provide an incomplete picture

IntroductionCoastal marine ecosystems, are particularly susceptible to climate change. One such threat is atmospheric heatwaves, which are predicted to increase in frequency, duration, and intensity. Many intertidal organisms already live at the edge of their thermal tolerance limits and heatwaves can outstretch an organism’s ability to compensate in the short term. In June 2021 the Pacific Northwest region of North America, including the Salish Sea, experienced a significant atmospheric heatwave during some of the lowest tides of the year. This was followed by numerous reports of dead and dying intertidal marine organisms region-wide. A semi-quantitative rapid assessment found a range of both species- and location-specific effects but generally recorded widespread negative impacts to intertidal shellfish species across the Salish Sea. MethodsFollowing these results, we opportunistically analyzed data collected by intertidal bivalve resource managers from the region. These datasets allowed us to examine regional density and size data for clam and oyster populations before and after the heatwave to increase our quantitative understanding of heatwave effects. ResultsWe found a range of responses including positive and negative effects of the heatwave on clam and oyster density. While we generally found small changes in bivalve size, some site-species combinations displayed large shifts in size frequency. Many of our analyses did not indicate even moderate statistical support, even with large changes in the mean, driven in part by high variability in the data. Time intervals between surveys, ranging from 2 to over 25 months, had little effect on observed variability indicating that any heatwave-induced effects may be masked by variability inherent to the population ecology and/or survey methodology. DiscussionThis analysis has highlighted the need for intertidal resource managers, and the greater research community, to consider alternative survey approaches designed to constrain variability in order to detect the effects of acute or extreme events. With the effects of climate change predicted to become more intense, targeted survey approaches may be needed to detect the effects and implications of such events and to continue effective management of intertidal bivalves in the Salish Sea and worldwide.