Agricultural Productive Carrying Capacity Improve and Water Optimal Allocation under Uncertainty Based on Remote Sensing Data in Lancang County, Southwest China

Through the reasonable calculation of water resources, evaluating the irrigation carrying capacity of farmland under the constraints of water resources is crucial for optimizing the spatial distribution of agricultural production and ecology and rationally adjusting the scale of agricultural production. This paper proposes an optimization framework based on Type 2 fuzzy chance-constrained programming (T2FCCP) to solve the problem of regional water resources optimal allocation and evaluation of farmland irrigation carrying capacity under uncertain conditions. To illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework, this paper conducts a case study on Lancang County, Puer City, Yunnan Province. Methods, such as watershed harmony evaluation method, remote sensing data, and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), are applied and integrated into the proposed optimization framework to systematically deal with uncertainties in water resource systems and agricultural systems. The results include the costs and benefits of regional water and soil resources systems, water resources optimal allocation, and crop planting structure results under different SSPs in Lancang County, Puer City. The results also show that the total cost under T2FCCP is about 5% lower than that under fuzzy chance-constrained programming (FCCP) and about 17% lower than that under chance-constrained programming (CCP). By 2025, the water resources carrying capacity of different tributaries in Lancang County, Puer City will increase, and based on the evaluation results of agricultural production irrigation carrying capacity, suggestions are given to ensure agricultural production carrying capacity.