Circulating microRNAs differentiate fast-progressing from slow-progressing and non-progressing knee osteoarthritis in the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort

Introduction: The objective of this study is to identify circulating microRNAs that distinguish fast-progressing radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) in the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort by applying microRNA-sequencing. Methods: Participants with Kellgren–Lawrence (KL) grade 0/1 at baseline were included ( N = 106). Fast-progressors were defined by an increase to KL 3/4 by 4-year follow-up ( N = 20), whereas slow-progressors showed an increase to KL 2/3/4 only at 8-year follow-up ( N = 35). Non-progressors remained at KL 0/1 by 8-year follow-up ( N = 51). MicroRNA-sequencing was performed on plasma collected at baseline and 4-year follow-up from the same participants. Negative binomial models were fitted to identify differentially expressed (DE) microRNAs. Penalized logistic regression (PLR) analyses were performed to select combinations of DE microRNAs that distinguished fast-progressors. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were constructed to evaluate predictive ability. Results: DE analyses revealed 48 microRNAs at baseline and 2 microRNAs at 4-year follow-up [false discovery rate (FDR)