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Development and External Validation of Survival Prediction Model for Pancreatic Cancer Using Two Nationwide Databases: Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP)

Authors :
Jae Seung Kang
Lydia Mok
Jin Seok Heo
In Woong Han
Sang Hyun Shin
Yoo-Seok Yoon
Ho-Seong Han
Dae Wook Hwang
Jae Hoon Lee
Woo Jung Lee
Sang Jae Park
Joon Seong Park
Yonghoon Kim
Huisong Lee
Young-Dong Yu
Jae Do Yang
Seung Eun Lee
Il Young Park
Chi-Young Jeong
Younghoon Roh
Seong-Ryong Kim
Ju Ik Moon
Sang Kuon Lee
Hee Joon Kim
Seungyeoun Lee
Hongbeom Kim
Wooil Kwon
Chang-Sup Lim
Jin-Young Jang
Taesung Park
Source :
Gut and Liver, Vol 15, Iss 6, Pp 912-921 (2021)
Publication Year :
2021
Publisher :
Gastroenterology Council for Gut and Liver, 2021.

Abstract

Background/Aims: Several prediction models for evaluating the prognosis of nonmetastatic resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have been developed, and their performances were reported to be superior to that of the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. We developed a prediction model to evaluate the prognosis of resected PDAC and externally validated it with data from a nationwide Korean database. Methods: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results : (SEER) database were utilized for model development, and data from the Korea Tumor Registry System-Biliary Pancreas (KOTUS-BP) database were used for external validation. Potential candidate variables for model development were age, sex, histologic differentiation, tumor location, adjuvant chemotherapy, and the AJCC 8th staging system T and N stages. For external validation, the concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were evaluated. Results: Between 2004 and 2016, data from 9,624 patients were utilized for model development, and data from 3,282 patients were used for external validation. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, age, sex, tumor location, T and N stages, histologic differentiation, and adjuvant chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for resected PDAC. After an exhaustive search and 10-fold cross validation, the best model was finally developed, which included all prognostic variables. The C-index, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year time-dependent AUCs were 0.628, 0.650, 0.665, 0.675, and 0.686, respectively. Conclusions: The survival prediction model for resected PDAC could provide quantitative survival probabilities with reliable performance. External validation studies with other nationwide databases are needed to evaluate the performance of this model.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
19762283
Volume :
15
Issue :
6
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Gut and Liver
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.275799c9896448f4ab5100b3bb674b52
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.5009/gnl20306