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Reassessing Reported Deaths and Estimated Infection Attack Rate during the First 6 Months of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Delhi, India
- Source :
- Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol 28, Iss 4, Pp 759-766 (2022)
- Publication Year :
- 2022
- Publisher :
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2022.
-
Abstract
- India reported >10 million coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To reassess reported deaths and estimate incidence rates during the first 6 months of the epidemic, we used a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission model fit to data from 3 serosurveys in Delhi and time-series documentation of reported deaths. We estimated 48.7% (95% credible interval 22.1%–76.8%) cumulative infection in the population through the end of September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries, we estimated that just 15.0% (95% credible interval 9.3%–34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths had been reported, indicating either substantial underreporting or lower age-specific infection-fatality ratios in India than in high-income countries. Despite the estimated high attack rate, additional epidemic waves occurred in late 2020 and April–May 2021. Future dynamics will depend on the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity and their effectiveness against new variants.
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 10806040 and 10806059
- Volume :
- 28
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- Directory of Open Access Journals
- Journal :
- Emerging Infectious Diseases
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- edsdoj.24d2d318f9a4e42b256043360f40074
- Document Type :
- article
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2804.210879