First-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein is not a good predictor for adverse pregnancy outcomes: a retrospective study of 3325 cases

Abstract Background It is well known that second-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MS-AFP) is a predictor for adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs), such as preterm birth, stillbirth, preeclampsia and small for gestational age (SGA). However, it is unknown whether first-trimester MS-AFP is also predictive of APOs. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the data on the first-trimester MS-AFP levels and pregnancy outcomes of 3325 singleton pregnant women. The cutoff value of 2.5 multiple of the median (MoM) was used to evaluate the risks of APOs regarding MS-AFP. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the predictive efficiencies of MS-AFP to these disorders. Results A total of 181 pregnancies resulted in preterm birth, 32 in stillbirth, 81 in preeclampsia, and 362 in SGA. Compared to women with MS-AFP