Climate suitability for sugarcane in the Triângulo Mineiro region, Brazil, under future scenarios

The sugarcane production is vital for the economy of the Triângulo Mineiro region, in Brazil. However, its is likely to be affected by climate change, due to the increase of gases in the atmosphere. This study aimed to classify the climate suitability of sugarcane for the region, considering the current and future climate change scenarios. Historical series of rainfall and air temperature from 1981 to 2021 were employed, and each location was classified as suitable, restricted or unsuitable, according to the average temperature and annual water deficit. The RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were considered to analyze the projections for the end of the 21st century (2081-2100). The region presents an average temperature of 23.2 ºC (±1.36 ºC) and annual water deficit of 189 mm (±77.54 mm). Currently, 85 % of the area is considered as suitable. The Ituiutaba microregion, located in the west, shows a pronounced water deficit, which restricts the sugarcane cultivation. The results from the projections indicate a reduction in the suitability for sugarcane production in the tested scenarios, with the effects on the water regime being more pronounced than those on temperature. For example, the area classified as suitable would decrease to 44.35 and 9.87 %, respectively, in the RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.