Assessing green production efficiency and spatial characteristics of China’s real estate industry based on the undesirable super-SBM model

Abstract As China strives to balance rapid urbanization with environmental conservation, increasing attention is being paid to the pursuit of green production efficiency (GPE) in the real estate industry. The undesirable super-SBM model was used to calculate the GPE of China's real estate industry from 2001 to 2020. Additionally, GPE spatial distribution characteristics in China's real estate industry were analyzed using the standard deviation ellipse (SDE), Moran’s index, Theil index, random kernel density estimation (RKDA), and spatial Markov chain (SMC) methods. The GPE exhibited a U-shaped trend, with 2008 as the inflection point, first decreasing and then increasing. It reached a maximum value of 0.747 in 2020. The Theil index increased from 0.043 to 0.121 nationwide, indicating the overall characteristics of low-level slow growth, and imbalance. Discrepancies in input–output scales, the southward shift of economic centers, and population movements contribute significantly to the disparities between the east and west, north and south, and regions divided by the Hu Huanyong Line (Hu Line). The GPE exhibited club convergence characteristics; however, polarization phenomena exist in local areas. Spatial spillover effects were also observed in GPE. Finally, we provide recommendations for promoting green development in the real estate industry, including green building technology, fiscal subsidy investment, and population migration management.