Development of an ARIMAX model for forecasting airport electricity consumption in Accra-Ghana: The role of weather and air passenger traffic

The rapid expansion of the aviation industry has significantly increased energy consumption within airport terminals. This study introduces an advanced ARIMAX model to forecast electricity consumption at Kotoka International Airport (KIA) in Ghana by incorporating weather conditions and air passenger numbers. By analysing data from 2019 to 2022, including lockdown periods, the model demonstrates superior predictive accuracy, evidenced by an RMSE of 55,914 kWh, a MAPE of 4.22 %, and an R-squared value of 0.899. Key determinants of energy consumption identified include air passengers and temperature, highlighting their substantial impact on energy use. The ARIMAX model's accuracy underscores its potential for enhancing energy management practices at airports. By integrating variables such as air passenger traffic and weather conditions, the model refines energy demand predictions, supporting more efficient energy use and operational planning. The ARIMAX model proves to be a valuable tool for forecasting energy consumption at KIA, aiding in energy management and sustainability efforts.