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An Epidemic Model with Infection Age and Vaccination Age Structure

Authors :
Glenn Webb
Xinyue Evelyn Zhao
Source :
Infectious Disease Reports, Vol 16, Iss 1, Pp 35-64 (2024)
Publication Year :
2024
Publisher :
MDPI AG, 2024.

Abstract

A model of epidemic dynamics is developed that incorporates continuous variables for infection age and vaccination age. The model analyzes pre-symptomatic and symptomatic periods of an infected individual in terms of infection age. This property is shown to be of major importance in the severity of the epidemic, when the infectious period of an infected individual precedes the symptomatic period. The model also analyzes the efficacy of vaccination in terms of vaccination age. The immunity to infection of vaccinated individuals varies with vaccination age and is also of major significance in the severity of the epidemic. Application of the model to the 2003 SARS epidemic in Taiwan and the COVID-19 epidemic in New York provides insights into the dynamics of these diseases. It is shown that the SARS outbreak was effectively contained due to the complete overlap of infectious and symptomatic periods, allowing for the timely isolation of affected individuals. In contrast, the pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19 in New York led to a rapid, uncontrolled epidemic. These findings underscore the critical importance of the pre-symptomatic infectious period and the vaccination strategies in influencing the dynamics of an epidemic.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
20367449
Volume :
16
Issue :
1
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Infectious Disease Reports
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.1c8296a717904dcfbf4e63d11c15268a
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3390/idr16010004