Development and validation of a radiomics nomogram for diagnosis of malignant pleural effusion

Abstract Objective We aimed to develop a radiomics nomogram based on computed tomography (CT) scan features and high-throughput radiomics features for diagnosis of malignant pleural effusion (MPE). Methods In this study, 507 eligible patients with PE (207 malignant and 300 benign) were collected retrospectively. Patients were divided into training (n = 355) and validation cohorts (n = 152). Radiomics features were extracted from initial unenhanced CT images. CT scan features of PE were also collected. We used the variance threshold algorithm and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to select optimal features to build a radiomics model for predicting the nature of PE. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyzes were used to identify significant independent factors associated with MPE, which were then included in the radiomics nomogram. Results A total of four CT features were retained as significant independent factors, including massive PE, obstructive atelectasis or pneumonia, pleural thickening > 10 mm, and pulmonary nodules and/or masses. The radiomics nomogram constructed from 13 radiomics parameters and four CT features showed good predictive efficacy in training cohort [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.926, 95% CI 0.894, 0.951] and validation cohort (AUC = 0.916, 95% CI 0.860, 0.955). The calibration curve and decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram helped differentiate MPE from benign pleural effusion (BPE) in clinical practice. Conclusion This study presents a nomogram model incorporating CT scan features and radiomics features to help physicians differentiate MPE from BPE.