Nomogram for Persistent Post-Stroke Depression and Decision Curve Analysis

Yan Lan, Chensheng Pan, Xiuli Qiu, Jinfeng Miao, Wenzhe Sun, Guo Li, Xin Zhao, Zhou Zhu, Suiqiang Zhu Department of Neurology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Zhou Zhu; Suiqiang Zhu, Tel +86-18171081029 ; +86-13035101141, Email zhouzhu@hust.edu.cn; zhusuiqiang@163.comPurpose: Previous studies have shown that persistent post-stroke depression (PSD) was associated with unfavorable prognosis. The aim of this multicenter prospective study was to investigate the predictors associated with persistent PSD, develop a nomogram and validate its clinical usefulness by decision curve analysis (DCA).Patients and Methods: A total of 875 acute ischemic stroke patients from four hospitals were consecutively recruited and completed 1-year follow-ups. Sociodemographic indicators, vascular risk factors, clinical information, serum biochemical indicators and cytokines were collected on admission. The functional outcome was assessed at 1 year after stroke. Persistent depression was defined as having a presentation of depression at each follow-up points and the depressive symptoms occurring persistently since the diagnosis of depression.Results: There were 513 patients who experienced PSD during the 1-year follow-up, the cumulative incidence of PSD within 1 year was 58.6%. Persistent PSD was recorded in 289 patients, of which 59 (20.4%) result in unfavorable outcomes. The risk factors of persistent PSD in 1 year after stroke were the Hamilton Depression Scale-17 items (HAMD-17) score at admission, serum direct bilirubin and free serum thyroxine (FT4) level and activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT). Nomogram conducted based on these factors has a C-index (± standard deviation) of 0.655 ± 0.039, and the DCA demonstrated that the nomogram had a favorable clinical utility.Conclusion: We found that persistent depression after stroke in the first-year time course after stroke was associated with HAMD-17 score at admission, lower serum direct bilirubin and FT4 level, and APTT. A nomogram was developed with advisable clinical usefulness in our study.Keywords: persistent post-stroke depression, nomogram, decision curve analysis