Development and Validation of Nomograms for Predicting Pneumonia in Patients with COVID-19 and Lung Cancer

Yiyue Xu,1,* Haoqian Li,1,* Xiaoqing Wang,2 Butuo Li,1 Aiqin Gao,1 Qian Zhao,1 Linlin Yang,1 Wenru Qin,1 Linlin Wang1 1Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Portal Hypertension, Shandong Public Health Clinical Center, Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Linlin Wang, Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital and Institute, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, 440 JiYan Road, Jinan, 250117, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86-13793187739, Email wanglinlinatjn@163.comBackground: COVID-19 has spread worldwide, becoming a global threat to public health and can lead to complications, especially pneumonia, which can be life-threatening. However, in lung cancer patients, the prediction of pneumonia and severe pneumonia has not been studied. We aimed to develop effective models to assess pneumonia after SARS-CoV-2 infection in lung cancer patients to guide COVID-19 management.Methods: We retrospectively recruited 621 lung cancer patients diagnosed with COVID-19 via SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR analysis in two medical centers and divided into training and validation group, respectively. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify independent risk factors of all-grade pneumonia and ≥ grade 2 pneumonia in the training group. Nomograms were established based on independent predictors and verified in the validation group. C-index, ROC curves, calibration curve, and DCA were used to evaluate the nomograms. Subgroup analyses in immunotherapy or thoracic radiotherapy patients were then conducted.Results: Among 621 lung cancer patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, 203 (32.7%) developed pneumonia, and 66 (10.6%) were ≥ grade 2. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that diabetes, thoracic radiotherapy, low platelet and low albumin at diagnosis of COVID-19 were significantly associated with all-grade pneumonia. The C-indices of the prediction nomograms in the training group and validation group were 0.702 and 0.673, respectively. Independent predictors of ≥ grade 2 pneumonia were age, KPS, thoracic radiotherapy, platelet and albumin at COVID 19 diagnosis, with C-indices of 0.811 and 0.799 in the training and validation groups. In the thoracic radiotherapy subgroup, 40.8% and 11% patients developed all-grade and ≥grade 2 pneumonia, respectively. The rates in the immunotherapy subgroup were 31.3% and 6.6%, respectively.Conclusion: We developed nomograms predicting the probability of pneumonia in lung cancer patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. The models showed good performance and can be used in the clinical management of COVID-19 in lung cancer patients. Higher-risk patients should be managed with enhanced protective measures and appropriate intervention.Keywords: COVID-19, pneumonia, lung cancer, risk factor, nomogram