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Climatic Trends of Variable Temperate Environment: A Complete Time Series Analysis during 1980–2020

Authors :
Bilal Ahmad Lone
Sameera Qayoom
Aijaz Nazir
Shafat Ahmad Ahanger
Umer Basu
Tauseef Ahmad Bhat
Zahoor Ahmad Dar
Muntazir Mushtaq
Ayman El Sabagh
Walid Soufan
Muhammad Habib ur Rahman
Rasha Fathallah El-Agamy
Source :
Atmosphere, Vol 13, Iss 5, p 749 (2022)
Publication Year :
2022
Publisher :
MDPI AG, 2022.

Abstract

The western Himalayan region is susceptible to minor climate changes because of its fragile ecology, which might threaten the valley’s prestigious ecosystems and socio-economic components. The Himalayas’s local climate and weather are vulnerable to and interlinked with world-scale climatic changes since the region’s hydrology is predominantly dominated by snow and glaciers. The Himalayas, notably the Jammu and Kashmir region in the western Himalayas, has clearly shown distinct and robust evidence of climate change. This study used observed data to examine the climatic variability and trends of change in precipitation and temperature for the Kashmir valley between 1980 and 2020. Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Kokernag, Qazigund, Kupwara, and Srinagar (Shalimar) meteorological stations in the Kashmir valley were studied in detail for long- and short-term as well as localized fluctuations in temperature and precipitation. The annual temperature and precipitation fluctuations were calculated using Sen’s slope approach, and the sloping trend was determined using linear regression. The research showed statistically insignificant growing trends in maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the Kashmir valley. The average annual temperature in the Kashmir valley increased by 1.55 °C during the last 41 years (from 1980 to 2020), with a higher rise in maximum and minimum temperature by 2.00 and 1.10 °C, respectively. However, precipitation showed a non-significant decreasing trend concerning time series analysis over 1980 to 2020 in Kashmir valley. Results of annual average maximum temperature at all the stations revealed that Pahalgam (2.2 °C), Kokernag (1.8 °C), and Kupwara (1.8 °C) displayed a steep upsurge and statistically significant trends; however, annual average minimum temperature followed an increasing trend from 1980 to 2020 at all the stations except Shalimar. However, non-significant declining trends in precipitation were recorded at all the locations in Kashmir valley. This changing pattern of temperature and precipitation could have significant environmental consequences, affecting the western Himalayan region’s food security and ecological sustainability.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
20734433
Volume :
13
Issue :
5
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Atmosphere
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.1a5b58edd78e4ae9b1548f3d8e53e7db
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050749