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Recent and future trends in sea surface temperature across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

Authors :
Roohollah Noori
Fuqiang Tian
Ronny Berndtsson
Mahmud Reza Abbasi
Mohammadreza Vesali Naseh
Anahita Modabberi
Ali Soltani
Bjørn Kløve
Source :
PLoS ONE, Vol 14, Iss 2, p e0212790 (2019)
Publication Year :
2019
Publisher :
Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2019.

Abstract

Climate change's effect on sea surface temperature (SST) at the regional scale vary due to driving forces that include potential changes in ocean circulation and internal climate variability, ice cover, thermal stability, and ocean mixing layer depth. For a better understanding of future effects, it is important to analyze historical changes in SST at regional scales and test prediction techniques. In this study, the variation in SST across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman (PG&GO) during the past four decades was analyzed and predicted to the end of 21st century using a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) model. As input, daily optimum interpolation SST anomaly (DOISSTA) data, available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, were used. Descriptive analyses and POD results demonstrated a gradually increasing trend in DOISSTA in the PG&GO over the past four decades. The spatial distribution of DOISSTA indicated: (1) that shallow parts of the Persian Gulf have experienced minimum and maximum values of DOISSTA and (2) high variability in DOISSTA in shallow parts of the Persian Gulf, including some parts of southern and northwestern coasts. Prediction of future SST using the POD model revealed the highest warming during summer in the entire PG&GO by 2100 and the lowest warming during fall and winter in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, respectively. The model indicated that monthly SST in the Persian Gulf may increase by up to 4.3 °C in August by the turn of the century. Similarly, mean annual changes in SST across the PG&GO may increase by about 2.2 °C by 2100.

Subjects

Subjects :
Medicine
Science

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
19326203
Volume :
14
Issue :
2
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
PLoS ONE
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.1a08c15045b444ad8c0ac645fba0c91a
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0212790