Assessing the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Anthropogenic Impacts on Remotely Sensed Vegetation Dynamics in Xinjiang, China

The dynamics of the ecosystem represented by vegetation under the influence of human activities have become an important issue in the study of the regional ecological environment. Xinjiang is one of the most ecologically fragile areas in the world, and vegetation changes have received extensive attention. Xinjiang is one of the most ecologically fragile areas in the world, and vegetation changes have received extensive attention. However, the spatiotemporal patterns and evolutionary trends of anthropogenic impacts on vegetation dynamics in Xinjiang are still unclear. In this study, the anthropogenic impacts on vegetation dynamics were quantitatively assessed by combining the improved normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) prediction model and the residual analysis method in Xinjiang, China. The human driving factors were analyzed with the support of a stepwise multiple regression model for vegetation changes at the county scale. Based on trend analysis and the Hurst exponent, the spatiotemporal characteristics and evolutionary trends of the impact of human activities on vegetation change were discussed. The results show that (1) the NDVI values in Xinjiang showed a gradually increasing trend at a rate of 0.005/10 years from 1982 to 2018, and the vegetation dynamics mainly showed significant improvements (57.09% of the vegetated areas), especially for crops. (2) The anthropogenic effects of vegetation changes in Xinjiang mainly included positive impact increases (43.22% of the vegetated areas) from 2000 to 2018. Human activities promoted the increase in the NDVI of various vegetation types. Both the positive and negative impacts of human activities increased over the study period, and the growth rate of the positive influence (0.08%/10 years) was higher than that of the negative influence (0.04%/10 years). (3) The cultivated area, GDP of primary industry, and population are the main anthropogenic factors causing the increase in NDVI, which dominate the vegetation greening in 30.34%, 29.22%, and 28.09% of the counties in Xinjiang, respectively. The animal husbandry population, agricultural population, and livestock number are the main anthropogenic factors causing the decrease in NDVI, which dominate the vegetation degradation in 23.60%, 21.35%, and 17.98% of the counties in Xinjiang, respectively. (4) The evolutionary trend of the anthropogenic impact on vegetation dynamics in Xinjiang will be dominated by anti-persistence (53.84% of the vegetated areas), thereby mainly showing that the positive impacts continued to increase (22.56% of the vegetated areas), especially for crops, shrubs, grasslands, and alpine vegetation. Our results are helpful in understanding the characteristics and evolutionary trends of vegetation changes in arid areas caused by human activities and are of significance as a reference for policymakers to appropriately adjust policy guidance in a timely manner to promote the protection and sustainable development of fragile ecosystems.