Heterogeneity in Trajectories of Systolic Blood Pressure among Young Adults in Qingdao Port Cardiovascular Health Study

Background: Although increased age is associated with higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) in general, there may be variation across individuals in how SBP changes over time. The goal of this paper is to identify heterogeneity in SBP trajectories among young adults with similar initial values and identify personal characteristics associated with different trajectory patterns. This may have important implications for prevention and prognosis. Methods: A cohort of 12,468 individuals aged 18–35 years in the Qingdao Port Cardiovascular Health Study in China was followed yearly during 2000–2011. Individuals were categorized into three strata according to their baseline SBP: ≤110 mmHg, 111–130 mmHg, and >130 mmHg. Within each stratum, group-based trajectory analyses were conducted to identify distinct SBP trajectory patterns, and their association with sociodemographic and baseline health characteristics was assessed by ordinal logistic regression. Results: Five distinct groups of individuals exhibiting divergent patterns of increasing, stable or decreasing SBP trends were identified within each stratum. This is a first report to identify a subgroup with decreasing trend in SBP. Individuals with more advanced age, having less than high school education, family history of cardiovascular diseases, greater body mass index, greater waist circumference, and hyperlipidemia at baseline were more likely to experience trajectories of higher SBP within each stratum. Conclusions: The diverging trajectories among young adults with similar initial SBP highlight the need for prevention and feasibility of effective blood pressure control, while the identified risk factors may inform targeted interventions.