Characteristics and Drivers of Vegetation Change in Xinjiang, 2000–2020

Examining the features of vegetation change and analyzing its driving forces across an extensive time series in Xinjiang are pivotal for the ecological environment. This research can offer a crucial point of reference for regional ecological conservation endeavors. We calculated the fractional vegetation cover (FVC) using MOD13Q1 data accessed through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. To discern the characteristics of vegetation changes and forecast future trends, we employed time series analysis, coefficient of variation, and the Hurst exponent. The correlation between climate factors and FVC was investigated through correlation analysis. Simultaneously, to determine the relative impact of meteorological change and anthropogenic actions on FVC, we utilized multiple regression residual analysis. Furthermore, adhering to China’s ecological functional zone classification, Xinjiang was segmented into five ecological zones: R1 Altai Mountains-Junggar West Mountain Forest and Grassland Ecoregion, R2 Junggar Basin Desert Ecoregion, R3 Tianshan Mountains Mountain Forest and Grassland Ecoregion, R4 Tarim Basin-Eastern Frontier Desert Ecoregion, and R5 Pamir-Kunlun Mountains-Altan Mountains Alpine Desert and Grassland Ecoregion. A comparative analysis of these five regions was subsequently conducted. The results showed the following: (1) During the first two decades of the 21st century, the overall FVC in Xinjiang primarily exhibited a trend of growth, exhibiting a rate of increase of 4 × 10−4 y−1. The multi-year average FVC was 0.223. The mean value of the multi-year FVC was 0.223, and the mean values of different ecological zones showed the following order: R1 > R3 > R2 > R5 > R4. (2) The predominant spatial pattern of FVC across Xinjiang’s landscape is characterized by higher coverage in the northwest and lower in the southeast. In this region, 66.63% of the terrain exhibits deteriorating vegetation, while 11% of the region exhibits a notable rise in plant growth. Future changes in FVC will be dominated by a decreasing trend. Regarding the coefficient of variation outcomes, a minor variation, representing 42.12% of the total, is noticeable; the mean coefficient of variation stands at 0.2786. The stability across varied ecological zones follows the order: R1 > R3 > R2 > R4 > R5. (3) Factors that have a facilitating effect on vegetation FVC included relative humidity, daylight hours, and precipitation, with relative humidity having a greater influence, while factors that have a hindering effect on vegetation FVC included air temperature and wind speed, with wind speed having a greater influence. (4) Vegetation alterations are primarily influenced by climate change, while human activities play a secondary role, contributing 56.93% and 43.07%, respectively. This research underscores the necessity for continued surveillance of vegetation dynamics and the enhancement of policies focused on habitat renewal and the safeguarding of vegetation in Xinjiang.