Effects of global ship emissions on European air pollution levels

Ship emissions constitute a large, and so far poorly regulated, source of air pollution. Emissions are mainly clustered along major ship routes both in open seas and close to densely populated shorelines. Major air pollutants emitted include sulfur dioxide, NOx, and primary particles. Sulfur and NOx are both major contributors to the formation of secondary fine particles (PM2.5) and to acidification and eutrophication. In addition, NOx is a major precursor for ground-level ozone. In this paper, we quantify the contributions from international shipping to European air pollution levels and depositions. This study is based on global and regional model calculations. The model runs are made with meteorology and emission data representative of the year 2017 after the tightening of the SECA (sulfur emission control area) regulations in 2015 but before the global sulfur cap that came into force in 2020. The ship emissions have been derived using ship positioning data. We have also made model runs reducing sulfur emissions by 80 % corresponding to the 2020 requirements. This study is based on model sensitivity studies perturbing emissions from different sea areas: the northern European SECA in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, the Atlantic Ocean close to Europe, shipping in the rest of the world, and finally all global ship emissions together. Sensitivity studies have also been made setting lower bounds on the effects of ship plumes on ozone formation. Both global- and regional-scale calculations show that for PM2.5 and depositions of oxidised nitrogen and sulfur, the effects of ship emissions are much larger when emissions occur close to the shore than at open seas. In many coastal countries, calculations show that shipping is responsible for 10 % or more of the controllable PM2.5 concentrations and depositions of oxidised nitrogen and sulfur. With few exceptions, the results from the global and regional calculations are similar. Our calculations show that substantial reductions in the contributions from ship emissions to PM2.5 concentrations and to depositions of sulfur can be expected in European coastal regions as a result of the implementation of a 0.5 % worldwide limit of the sulfur content in marine fuels from 2020. For countries bordering the North Sea and Baltic Sea SECA, low sulfur emissions have already resulted in marked reductions in PM2.5 from shipping before 2020. For ozone, the lifetime in the atmosphere is much longer than for PM2.5, and the potential for ozone formation is much larger in otherwise pristine environments. We calculate considerable contributions from open sea shipping. As a result, we find that the largest contributions to ozone in several regions and countries in Europe are from sea areas well outside European waters.