Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Storage Evolution in Chinese Provinces and Cities Along the Maritime Silk Road Economic Belt

[Objective] The Silk Road Economic Belt facilitated rapid economic development in cities along its route, resulting in significant changes in land use. Investigating the carbon stock variations caused by land use in this region was crucial for optimizing land use patterns and achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. [Methods] The PLUS-InVEST model was employed to assess and predict the carbon stock situation in five provinces and cities along China’s Maritime Silk Road between 1980 and 2030. The model simulated the spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon stock changes under multiple scenarios of land use, aiming to explore the impact of land use on carbon storage. [Results] The research findings indicate that over a span of 50 years, there has been a significant reduction in arable land and a substantial increase in construction land in the region. Forest land has managed to maintain a basic dynamic equilibrium during this period. However, there has been a considerable loss of carbon storage with an accelerating rate, primarily in the southern Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, northern Shanghai, Hangzhou, and along the coastal areas. [Conclusion] Through current status and multi-scenario analysis, it is projected that future carbon storage reduction will be primarily influenced by the loss of arable land and the rapid expansion of construction land. In scenarios focused on ecological preservation, there is some increase in carbon storage, while scenarios that maintain the current level of construction land result in a substantial decrease in carbon storage. It is evident that the region is currently experiencing accelerated economic development, with the exacerbation of carbon storage loss attributed to the loss of arable land and the acceleration of urbanization. The key factor in mitigating carbon storage loss lies in maintaining a dynamic balance in the total forest land area. Considering the current economic development status and regional position, it is advisable to rigorously safeguard the quantity of arable and forest land while intensively utilizing existing construction land. Furthermore, enhancing the quality of ecological land, such as grasslands, is recommended to preserve the regional ecological carbon storage level. This research provides valuable insights for achieving a harmonious balance between economic and ecological development in the context of the Maritime Silk Road initiative.