Non-HDL cholesterol and long-term follow-up outcomes in patients with metabolic syndrome

Abstract Background Non-high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (non-HDL-C) has been identified as a potential biomarker for metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, its predictive capability for MetS varies among different ethnic groups, necessitating further investigation. This study aimed to assess the role of non-HDL-C in the early diagnosis of MetS in the Iranian population through a longitudinal study with a 10-year follow-up period. Methods Our study enrolled 4684 individuals from the MASHAD (Mashhad Stroke and Heart Atherosclerotic Disorder) cohort who were followed for 10 years to examine the association between non-HDL-C and the incidence of MetS. Additionally, the contribution of individual MetS components to the overall burden was evaluated. Results A total of 1599 subjects developed MetS, while 3085 did not. Non-HDL-C levels ≥ 130 were associated with a 42% higher risk of developing MetS (relative risk (RR), 1.42; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.25–1.62). Regarding MetS components, elevated waist circumference (WC) showed the strongest association with MetS incidence (RR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.45–2.9), whereas triglyceride (TG) levels ≥ 150 mg/dL demonstrated the weakest association (RR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.04–1.46). Additionally, higher HDL-C levels were reported to be 20% protective against the risk of MetS (RR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.73–0.86). Moreover, fasting blood glucose (FBG) levels ≥ 100 mg/dL were not significantly linked to MetS burden, while systolic blood pressure (BP) levels ≥ 130 mmHg or diastolic BP levels ≥ 85 mmHg increased the risk of MetS incidence (RR, 1.25; 95% CI: 1.11–1.41). Conclusions Elevated non-HDL-C and increased WC serve as significant predictors of MetS in Iranians. Strategies targeting non-HDL-C levels and weight loss should be emphasized to mitigate the risk of MetS development.