Establishment of a biomarker model for predicting bone metastasis in resected stage III non-small cell lung cancer

Abstract Background This study was designed to establish a biomarker risk model for predicting bone metastasis in stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods The model consists of 105 cases of stage III NSCLC, who were treated and followed up. The patients were divided into bone metastasis group (n = 45) and non-bone metastasis group (other visceral metastasis and those without recurrence) (n = 60). Tissue microarrays were constructed for immunohistochemical study of 10 molecular markers associated with bone metastasis, based on which a model was established via logistic regression analysis for predicting the risk of bone metastases. The model was prospectively validated in another 40 patients with stage III NSCLC. Results The molecular model for predicting bone metastasis was logit (P) = − 2.538 + 2.808 CXCR4 +1.629 BSP +0.846 OPN-2.939 BMP4. ROC test showed that when P ≥ 0.408, the sensitivity was up to 71% and specificity of 70%. Model validation in the 40 cases in clinical trial (NCT 01124253) demonstrated that the prediction sensitivity of the model was 85.7%, specificity 66.7%, Kappa: 0.618, with a high degree of consistency. Conclusion The molecular model combining CXCR4, BSP, OPN and BMP4 could help predict the risk of bone metastasis in stage IIIa and IIIb resected NSCLC.