Mortality Among Danish Patients with a Hospital Diagnosis of Overweight or Obesity Over a 40-Year Period

Sigrid Bjerge Gribsholt,1,2 Dóra Körmendiné Farkas,3 Reimar Wernich Thomsen,3 Bjørn Richelsen,1,2 Henrik Toft Sørensen3 1Department of Endocrinology and Internal Medicine, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 2Steno Diabetes Center, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; 3Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital and Aarhus University, Aarhus, DenmarkCorrespondence: Sigrid Bjerge Gribsholt, Tel +4561651148, Email sigrid.bjerge.gribsholt@clin.au.dkPurpose: Data on long-term mortality among patients with hospital-diagnosed overweight/obesity are limited. Thus, we aim to examine 40-year mortality among patients with hospital-diagnosed overweight/obesity, including cause-specific deaths, secular time trends, and potential effect modification by age, comorbidity, and socioeconomic factors.Patients and Methods: From national registries, we identified all Danes with a first hospital-based overweight/obesity diagnosis (N=331,185), 1979– 2018, and constructed an age- and gender-matched general population comparison cohort (N=1,655,925). We computed mortality rates (MRs) per 1000 person-years and adjusted mortality rate ratios (aMRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), using Cox regression with adjustment for comorbidities and educational level. We performed stratified analyses on age, comorbidities, and socioeconomic factors.Results: The overall aMRR was 1.70 (95% CI: 1.68– 1.72) for patients with overweight/obesity, mainly due to diabetes and other endocrine diseases (aMRR=2.68 [95% CI: 2.57– 2.81]), cardiovascular (aMRR=1.95 [95% CI: 1.91– 1.98]), and respiratory diseases (aMRR=1.83 [95% CI: 1.77– 1.89]). The 1– 10-year aMRR decreased from 2.06 (95% CI: 2.01– 2.11) in 1979– 1989 to 1.29 (95% CI: 1.26– 1.32) in 2000– 2009. We found effect modification by age: age 18 to < 30 years: aMRR=2.44 (95% CI: 2.24– 2.66) vs age ≥ 70 years: 1.35 (95% CI: 1.33– 1.37); comorbidities: baseline comorbidities: aMRR=1.13 (95% CI: 1.10– 1.15) vs no comorbidities: aMRR=1.83 (95% CI: 1.80– 1.85); and educational level: high educational level: aMRR=1.81 (95% CI: 1.74– 1.88) vs low educational level: aMRR=1.70 (95% CI: 1.67– 1.72).Conclusion: Patients with overweight/obesity had a substantially increased long-term mortality, mainly due to diabetes, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases. The excess mortality decreased during recent decades. Age, comorbidities, and socioeconomic factors modified the association.Keywords: cohort study, epidemiology, mortality, multi-morbidity, obesity, overweight, socio-economy