Epidemiological characteristics and transmissibility of shigellosis in Hubei Province, China, 2005 – 2017

Abstract Background Shigellosis is one of the main diarrhea diseases in developing countries. However, the transmissibility of shigellosis remains unclear. Methods We used the dataset of shigellosis cases reported between January 2005 and December 2017, from Hubei Province, China. A mathematical model was developed based on the natural history and the transmission mechanism of the disease. By fitting the data using the model, transmission relative rate from person to person (b) and from reservoir to person (b w ), and the effective reproduction number (R eff ) were estimated. To simulate the contribution of b and b w during the transmission, we performed a “knock-out” simulation in four scenarios: A) b = 0 and b w = 0; B) b = 0; C) b w = 0; D) control (no intervention). Results A total of 130,770 shigellosis cases were reported in Hubei province, among which 13 cases were dead. The median annual incidence was 19.96 per 100,000 persons (range: 5.99 per 100,000 persons – 29.47 per 100,000 persons) with a decreased trend (trend χ 2 = 25,470.27, P