Prospective cohort study on tuberculosis incidence and risk factors in the elderly population of eastern China

Background: Tuberculosis continues to be a significant public health concern in China, particularly among the elderly population. This study aimed to assess the risk factors of tuberculosis among elderly individuals in China through a cohort study, focusing on this high-risk population. Methods: The population-based census was strategically designed to cover diverse regions and demographics across the city. The survey captured demographic and lifestyle information, as well as a clinical examination. Participants were prospectively followed up over a specified duration to monitor the incidence of tuberculosis cases. Results: After a follow-up period of more than 7 years, 246 individuals developed tuberculosis, resulting in an incidence rate of 92.21 per 100,000 person-years (95 % CI 81.2–104.3). In multivariate analysis, the following factors were found to have significant associations with active tuberculosis. Increasing age correlated with a higher risk of active tuberculosis (AHR = 1.03 per 1-year increase in age, 95%CI: 1.01, 1.04, P