Estimation of the potential geographical distribution of a new potato pest (Schrankia costaestrigalis) in China under climate change

Global food security is threatened by the impacts of the spread of crop pests and changes in the complex interactions between crops and pests under climate change. Schrankia costaestrigalis is a newly-reported potato pest in southern China. Early-warning monitoring of this insect pest could protect domestic agriculture as it has already caused regional yield reduction and/or quality decline in potato production. Our research aimed to confirm the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of S. costaestrigalis in China under different climate scenarios using an optimal MaxEnt model, and to provide baseline data for preventing agricultural damage by S. costaestrigalis. Our findings indicated that the accuracy of the optimal MaxEnt model was better than the default-setting model, and the minimum temperature of the coldest month, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation of the coldest quarter, and the human influence index were the variables significantly affecting the PGDs of S. costaestrigalis. The highly- and moderately-suitable habitats of S. costaestrigalis were mainly located in eastern and southern China. The PGDs of S. costaestrigalis in China will decrease under climate change. The conversion of the highly- to moderately-suitable habitat will also be significant under climate change. The centroid of the suitable habitat area of S. costaestrigalis under the current climate showed a general tendency to move northeast and to the middle-high latitudes in the 2030s. The agricultural practice of plastic film mulching in potato fields will provide a favorable microclimate for S. costaestrigalis in the suitable areas. More attention should be paid to the early warning and monitoring of S. costaestrigalis in order to prevent its further spread in the main areas in China’s winter potato planting regions.