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A dynamic model and some strategies on how to prevent and control hepatitis c in mainland China

Authors :
Wanru Jia
Jie Weng
Cong Fang
Yong Li
Source :
BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol 19, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2019)
Publication Year :
2019
Publisher :
BMC, 2019.

Abstract

Abstract Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of chronic liver disease. As yet there is no approved vaccine protects against contracting hepatitis C. HCV seriously affects many people’s health in the world. Methods In this article, an epidemiological model is proposed and discussed to understand the transmission and prevalence of hepatitis C in mainland China. This research concentrates on hepatitis C data from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China’s CDC). The optimal parameters of the model are obtained by calculating the minimum chi-square value. Sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number and the endemic equilibrium are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of control measures. Results Vertical infection is not the most important factor that causes hepatitis C epidemic, but contact transmission is. The proportion of acute patients who are transformed into chronic patients is about 82.62%. The possibility of the hospitalized patients who are restored to health is about 76.24%. There are about 92.32% of acute infected are not treated. The reproduction number of hepatitis C in mainland China is estimated as approximately 1.6592. Conclusion We find that small changes of transmission infection rate of acutely infected population, transmission infection rate of exposed population, transition rate for the acutely infected, and rate of progression to acute stage from the exposed can achieve the purpose of controlling HCV through sensitivity analysis. Finally, based on the results of sensitivity analysis, we find out several preventions and control strategies to control the Hepatitis C.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
14712334
Volume :
19
Issue :
1
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
BMC Infectious Diseases
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.0d16b2ba7e34714af6b09dd4d2e965d
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-019-4311-x