Risk assessment and prediction of critical mineral resources supply for China: A case of copper

[Objective] In today’s world, global risks have increased dramatically, and critical mineral resources are no exception. What are the supply risks of critical minerals for China and how should China deal with the increasing risks of critical mineral resources supply? [Methods] To answer these questions, we established an evaluation and prediction indicator system of environment-market-resource-competitiveness (EMRC) for assessing the supply risks of critical mineral resources by introducing an international competitiveness index, evaluated the supply risk of copper resources in China from 2008 to 2021 by using the stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI) method, and predicted the supply risk of copper resources in China by adopting the back propagation (BP) neural network. [Results] The results show that: (1) The international competitiveness dimension had the greatest impact on China’s copper supply risk, while the environmental dimension had the least impact; (2) From the perspective of the overall supply risk of copper resources, China’s risk is generally in the medium-high to high range, with a rising trend year by year; (3) From 2022 to 2023, the predicted value of China’s copper resources supply risk is medium-high. [Conclusion] To enhance the security of copper resources supply, China should increase investment in copper exploration, improve the utilization rate of domestic copper resources, strengthen resource diplomacy, and diversify import sources.