Development and validation of a model for predicting upstage in minimally invasive lung adenocarcinoma in Chinese people

Abstract Background Sublobar resection for ground-glass opacity became a recommend surgery choice supported by the JCOG0804/JCOG0802/JCOG1211 results. Sublobar resection includes segmentectomy and wedge resection, wedge resection is suitable for non-invasive lesions, but in clinical practice, when pathologists are uncertain about the intraoperative frozen diagnosis of invasive lesions, difficulty in choosing the appropriate operation occurs. The purpose of this study was to analyze how to select invasive lesions with clinic-pathological characters. Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 134 cases of pulmonary nodules diagnosed with minimally invasive adenocarcinoma by intraoperative freezing examination. The patients were divided into two groups according to intraoperative frozen results: the minimally invasive adenocarcinoma group and the at least minimally invasive adenocarcinoma group. A variety of clinical features were collected. Chi-square tests and multiple regression logistic analysis were used to screen out independent risk factors related to pathological upstage, and then ROC curves were established. In addition, an independent validation set included 1164 cases was collected. Results Independent risk factors related to pathological upstage were CT value, maximum tumor diameter, and frozen result of AL-MIA. The AUC of diagnostic mode was 71.1% [95%CI: 60.8-81.3%]. The independent validation included 1164 patients, 417 (35.8%) patients had paraffin-based pathology of invasive adenocarcinoma. The AUC of diagnostic mode was 75.7% [95%CI: 72.9-78.4%]. Conclusions The intraoperative frozen diagnosis was AL-MIA, maximum tumor diameter larger than 15 mm and CT value is more than − 450Hu, highly suggesting that the lung GGO was invasive adenocarcinoma which represent a higher risk to recurrence. For these patients, sublobectomy would be insufficient, lobectomy or complementary treatment is encouraged.