Trends in epidemiological characteristics and etiologies of diarrheal disease in children under five: an ecological study based on Global Burden of Disease study 2021

Background: Diarrhea remains a significant health threat to children under five years of age. The study aims to systematically elucidate the global burden of diarrhea in children, providing scientific insights for effective prevention and control strategies. Methods: The data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study was analyzed to assess the trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of diarrhea in children under five years across the globe, 21 geographical region, and 204 countries and territories, stratified by age group, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) levels. The trend of the disease burden for childhood diarrhea from 1990 to 2021 was described and estimated using the average annual percent change (AAPC), and a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was employed to predict the future burden of diarrhea in children. Results: From 1990 to 2021, there was a significant decline in the global burden of diarrhea among children under five years of age. The AAPC for incidence (−4092.18, 95% confidence interval [CI]: −4224.60 to −3959.76), prevalence (−70.98, 95% CI: −72.67 to −69.28), mortality (−6.89, 95% CI: −6.95 to −6.83), and DALYs rate (−621.79, 95% CI: −627.20 to −616.38) of diarrhea in children all showed a marked downward trend. Diarrheal incidence (r = −0.782, P