Research on failure mechanism of landslide with retaining-wall-like locked segment and instability prediction by inverse velocity method

Abstract The locked segment is critical for determining the stability of locked segment-type landslides. Research indicates that the volume expansion point marks the transition from the secondary creep stage to the tertiary creep stage in a landslide’s evolution, and also separates the stable crack growth stage from the unstable crack growth stage in the locked segment. Identifying the volume expansion point is essential for early warning and predicting locked segment-type landslides. A series of instruments (resistance strain gauges, acoustic emission system, piezoelectric acceleration sensors, etc.) were used to conduct physical model tests of the landslide with retaining-wall-like locked segment under external load on the landslide’s trailing edge. The evolution process of this landslide was analyzed through changes in slope shape and stress response characteristics. The experimental results reveal the failure mechanism of the landslide with retaining-wall-like locked segment: the upper part of the landslide thrusts and slides, the middle part squeezes and uplifts, the retaining-wall-like locked segment produces a locking effect, and compression-shear fracture of the retaining-wall-like locked segment leads to landslide failure. Based on the deformation and acoustic emission characteristics of the locked segment, a method for identifying the volume expansion point was established. This point was used as the onset of acceleration point in the inverse velocity method to predict the failure time of the locked segment-type landslides, incorporating the three-stage creep model and Fukumoto’s theory.