Descriptive analysis and a proposal for a predictive model of fatal occupational accidents in Spain

Accidents at work are a problem in today's economic structures, but if they result in the loss of human lives, the economic and social cost is even higher. The development of prevention policies, both at governmental and sectoral level, has led to a progressive reduction of occupational accidents, but number of fatal accidents remain high. The aim of this study is to explore the evolution of fatal accidents at work in Spain for the period 2009–2021, analyse the relationship between the main variables, and propose a predictive model of fatal occupational accidents in Spain. Data for this study are collected from occupational accident reports via the Delt@ (Electronic declaration of injured workers) IT system. The study variables were classified into five groups: temporal, personal, business, circumstances, and consequences. Fatal accidents at work are more common in males and in older workers, especially in workers between 40 and 59 years old. Companies with less than five workers have the highest percentage of fatal accidents, and the transport subsector and that the worker is carrying out his/her usual work have a strong correlation in the fatal accidents. Results can help to the agents involved in the health and safety management to develop preventive measures, and action plans.