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Harnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises

Authors :
Gerardo Chowell
Sushma Dahal
Raquel Bono
Kenji Mizumoto
Source :
Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
Publication Year :
2021
Publisher :
Nature Portfolio, 2021.

Abstract

Abstract To ensure the safe operation of schools, workplaces, nursing homes, and other businesses during COVID-19 pandemic there is an urgent need to develop cost-effective public health strategies. Here we focus on the cruise industry which was hit early by the COVID-19 pandemic, with more than 40 cruise ships reporting COVID-19 infections. We apply mathematical modeling to assess the impact of testing strategies together with social distancing protocols on the spread of the novel coronavirus during ocean cruises using an individual-level stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We model the contact network, the potential importation of cases arising during shore excursions, the temporal course of infectivity at the individual level, the effects of social distancing strategies, different testing scenarios characterized by the test’s sensitivity profile, and testing frequency. Our findings indicate that PCR testing at embarkation and daily testing of all individuals aboard, together with increased social distancing and other public health measures, should allow for rapid detection and isolation of COVID-19 infections and dramatically reducing the probability of onboard COVID-19 community spread. In contrast, relying only on PCR testing at embarkation would not be sufficient to avert outbreaks, even when implementing substantial levels of social distancing measures.

Subjects

Subjects :
Medicine
Science

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
20452322
Volume :
11
Issue :
1
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Scientific Reports
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.016f6ed8d5a84d8eb9dbf2c07c789606
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95032-4