Comparisons of noninvasive indices based on daily practice parameters for predicting liver cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B and hepatitis C patients in hospital and community populations

Several noninvasive indices have been proposed for predicting liver cirrhosis (LC), particularly in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). In this study, noninvasive indices for predicting LC and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were compared. A total of 119 chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients and 240 CHC patients were evaluated in a hospital-based setting using various predictors for pathologic LC such as aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio (AAR), AAR-to-platelet ratio index (AARPRI), AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), age-platelet (AP) index, and platelet counts. In addition, these indices were used to predict LC [based on ultrasound (US)] in a community-based population of 201 patients with endemic hepatitis C virus (HCV). These indices were evaluated for their ability to predict HCC in CHB and CHC patients (n = 200). In CHB patients, the diagnostic performance of all indices was inadequate for predicting LC (areas under receiver operating characteristic curves 1.4 might be a useful tool to identify candidates at high risk for HCC. In conclusion, platelet count was both consistent and accurate in predicting LC. An AAR > 1.4 is proposed as a possible surrogate marker for identifying patients at high risk for developing HCC.