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Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the European Union, with particular reference to transition countries

Authors :
Rilind Kabashi
Source :
Public Sector Economics, Vol 41, Iss 1, Pp 39-69 (2017)
Publication Year :
2017
Publisher :
Institute of Public Finance, 2017.

Abstract

This study empirically investigates the short- to medium-term effects of fiscal policy on output and other macroeconomic variables in European Union countries between 1995 and 2012, with particular reference to transition countries. It applies Panel Vector Auto Regression with recursive identification of government spending shocks as the most appropriate method for the aim of the study and the sample used. The main results indicate that expansionary spending shocks have a positive, but a relatively low effect on output, with the fiscal multiplier around one in the year of the shock and the following year, and lower thereinafter. There are indications that this result is driven by the recent crisis, as multipliers are considerably lower in the pre-crisis period. Effects of fiscal policy are strongly dependent on country structural characteristics. Fiscal multipliers are higher in new European Union member states, in countries with low public debt and low trade openness. Further, spending shocks are followed by rising debt levels in old member states, which could be related well to the recent European debt crisis. Finally, the analysis of the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy yields results that are consistent with both extended Real Business Cycle models and extended New Keynesian models.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
24598860
Volume :
41
Issue :
1
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Public Sector Economics
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.0150588a5858472e94d43172c9f192c6
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.41.1.7