Changes in the burden and underlying causes of heart failure in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990–2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019Research in context

Summary: Background: The burden of heart failure (HF) is high globally, but information on its burden in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is limited. This study provides a systematic analysis of the burden and underlying causes of HF in the EMR, including at the country level, between 1990 and 2019. Methods: We used the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data for estimates of prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and underlying causes of HF in the EMR. Age-standardised prevalence, YLDs, and underlying causes of HF were compared by 5-year age groups (considering 15 years old and more), sex (male and female), and countries. Findings: In contrast with the decreasing trend of HF burden globally, EMR showed an increasing trend. Globally, the HF age-standardised prevalence and YLDs decreased by 7.06% (95% UI: −7.22%, −6.9%) and 6.82% (95% UI: −6.98%, −6.66%) respectively, from 1990 to 2019. The HF age-standardised prevalence and YLDs in the EMR in 2019 were 706.43 (95% UI: 558.22–887.87) and 63.46 (95% UI: 39.82–92.59) per 100,000 persons, representing an increase of 8.07% (95% UI: 7.9%, 8.24%) and 8.79% (95% UI: 8.61%, 8.97%) from 1990, respectively. Amongst EMR countries, the age-standardised prevalence and YLDs were highest in Kuwait, while Pakistan consistently had the lowest HF burden. The dramatic increase of the age-standardised prevalence and YLDs were seen in Oman (28.79%; 95% UI: 28.51%, 29.07% and 29.56%; 95% UI: 29.28%, 29.84%), while Bahrain witnessed a reduction over the period shown (−9.66%; 95% UI: −9.84%, −9.48% and−9.14%; 95% UI: −9.32%, −8.96%). There were significant country-specific differences in trends of HF burden from 1990 to 2019. Males had relatively higher rates than females in all age groups. Among all causes of HF in 2019, ischemic heart disease accounted for the highest age-standardised prevalence and YLDs, followed by hypertensive heart disease. Interpretation: The burden of HF in the EMR was higher than the global, with increasing age-standardised prevalence and YLDs in countries of the region. A more comprehensive approach is needed to prevent underlying causes and improve medical care to control the burden of HF in the region. Funding: None.