(Predicting) Replication Outcomes

What share of results replicate in different literatures in some of the experimental social sciences? I will discuss several large replication projects in psychology and economics, where my coauthors and I have redone experiments published in high-impact journals with new and larger samples to see whether the main result replicates. The seminar will also cover our studies on forecasting prediction markets and surveys where researchers attempt to predict replication outcomes and outcomes of new hypothesis tests. I will also talk about recent work on multi-analyst projects and conceptual replications where we either ask researchers to test the same hypotheses on the same data or design different experiments testing the same hypothesis.