Continuities and discontinuities in covert operations to interfere in democratic votes of succession

In the international system, states have historically carried out covert operations to interfere in the votes of succession of foreign democracies. In the 20th century, such operations relied upon physical tools; more recently, they have relied upon digital ones. This thesis asks, why and how has the practice of covert interference in democratic votes of succession evolved in the digital age? In investigating this question, this thesis examines three cases of covert operations to interfere in democratic votes of succession, in Italy in 1948, in West Germany in 1972, and in the United States in 2016. This thesis then structures its cross-case analysis around identifying continuities and discontinuities across these operations. Based on this three-pronged small-N study, I argue that core features of covert operations to interfere in democratic votes of succession have remained constant over time, but that the reach and the penetrability of the internet have enabled states to engage in such operations with greater efficiency than was possible in the pre-digital era. The findings of this thesis hold significance for any democracy seeking to defend its electoral processes in the digital age. The continuities identified herein reveal the timeless methods of interfering actors, while the discontinuities reveal what about these operations have changed amid the spread of the internet and why democracies have become more exposed to external penetration in the process. More fundamentally, this thesis offers a roadmap for understanding covert interference in democratic votes of succession as a distinct and evolving phenomenon in international relations with which democracies will continue to grapple.