Optimisation methods for resilient and sustainable supply systems

In the 21st century, humanity is tasked with the unprecedented challenge of transforming its global economy and operations in a way that respects the biophysical systems it depends on for survival, while ensuring that more than 7 billion people are able to lead happy and fulfilled lives. Adapting to a changing environment, including frequent periods of extreme weather, will require more resilient industrial and supply systems which can ensure the ongoing provisioning of communities with necessary goods and services. Mitigation of further changes requires the design of systems which respect Planetary Boundaries and avoid further destabilising an already vulnerable Earth system. The pursuit of sustainable development, and a safe and just global society, is dependent on action spanning all scales, from intergovernmental organisations to nations and local communities. This work addresses these challenges through the development and application of optimisation methods to support decision-making at the corporate, national, and international levels. We address the problem of the design of supply chains under threat of disruption through introduction of a novel solution method, arriving at near-optimal solutions in significantly reduced time. We apply the concept of Planetary Boundaries, which define a global safe operating space in terms of environmental impacts, to the design of alternative fuel supply chains, finding that while performance could be substantially improved compared to current operations, it would not be enough to concurrently satisfy all biophysical boundaries, highlighting the need for further research as well as a reduction in passenger transport volume in general. Finally, we present a cross-national analysis of the environmental efficiency of well-being, assessing countries' efficiency in transforming their environmental impacts into a happy populace, concluding that while rich countries in particular need to significantly curb their resource use and emissions, this may be achievable with only moderate sacrifices in terms of well-being.