A new method for improving decision-making in the supply chain risk management process : supporting the learning project management organisation by applying advanced business modelling simulation techniques

The rise of importance of supply chain risk management both, in the scientific and business world, is essentially the result of solving an economical paradox. How can an organisation continuously increase its growth in revenue and increase its profit in a world in which the flow of goods and financial means is reaching a never seen complexity? This provides both, a threat and an opportunity to those organisations. The key is how to identify, manage and prevent operational risk. The following thesis aims at providing a new approach on the subject targeting project management organisations by bringing together three different disciplines, supply chain risk management, business modelling and simulation and the concept of the learning organisation. The research is based on a literature review of the identified fields followed by an empirical assessment aiming to understand the main risks threatening a project's supply chain, the current state of supply chain risk management and application of business modelling and simulation in practice as well as gaining an understanding how the principles of the learning organisation are lived within a project management organisation. Furthermore, the thesis is providing an exemplary approach on how a simulation model could be built assessing identified supply chain risks. The literature review, as well as the empirical assessment, conducted via the combination of questionnaire and interview, is clearly showing that, while the topic of supply chain risk management has become a constant part of the scientific discussion the real-world application, especially in the context of business modelling and simulation applying the principles of the learning organisation is still executed hesitantly. Furthermore, the thesis provides an example by which current state of the art simulation software is used to allow supply chain professionals to conduct each step of the supply chain risk management process in a virtual environment. The relevancy of the work is founded in the combination of the three fields offering a new approach to complex project management organisations in further developing their supply chain risk management capabilities.