Systematic overviews of the randomised evidence for the effects of traditional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and selective inhibitors of cyclo-oxygenase-2 on vascular and upper gastrointestinal outcomes

Background: Comparative assessments of the vascular and upper gastrointestinal risks of different regimens of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are required. Methods: Meta-analyses were conducted, using individual participant data where possible, of placebo-controlled trials of a selective cyclo-oxygenase [COX]-2 inhibitor ('coxib') or traditional NSAID, or randomised trials of a coxib versus traditional NSAIDs. A prespecified subdivision of traditional NSAID regimens of those with antiplatelet activity (mainly naproxen) and those without (mainly diclofenac) was made. Primary outcomes were major vascular events (MVEs; nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke or vascular death) and upper gastrointestinal complications (UGICs; perforation, obstruction or bleed). Findings: Searches identified 788 trials: 200 comparisons of a coxib vs placebo (88,604 participants, mean follow-up 0.60 years), 206 comparisons of a traditional NSAID vs placebo (43,482 participants, 0.46 years) and 149 comparisons of a coxib vs traditional NSAID (137,466 participants, mean follow-up 0.95 years). Compared to placebo, allocation to a coxib increased the risk of MVEs (rate ratio 1.38, 95% CI 1.14-1.66), vascular mortality (1.58, 1.11-2.24) and UGICs (1.81, 1.17-2.81). Overall, in the population studied, coxibs were associated with three additional major vascular events (one fatal) and two (rarely fatal) upper gastrointestinal complications per 1000 person-years exposure. There was no evidence of heterogeneity by duration of follow-up, coxib type, dose (other than for celecoxib), or patient characteristics, for the primary outcomes. The risk of MVEs for traditional NSAIDs without antiplatelet activity (mostly diclofenac 75mg bd or ibuprofen 800mg tds) were comparable to coxibs (1.40, 1.15-1.72); but the risk of UGICs (1.98, 1.39-2.84) was significantly greater. For traditional NSAIDs with antiplatelet activity (mostly naproxen 500mg bd) there were no significant excess of MVEs (0.84, 0.66-1.08), but UGICs were substantially increased (4.06, 2.85-5.78). Both coxibs and traditional NSAIDs increased risk of hospitalisation for heart failure by about two-fold. Interpretation: The vascular and upper gastrointestinal risks of coxibs and high-dose tNSAID regimens can be predicted, allowing the choice of analgesia to be tailored for particular patients.