Towards Graph Neural Network Surrogates Leveraging Mechanistic Expert Knowledge for Pandemic Response

During the COVID-19 crisis, mechanistic models have been proven fundamental to guide evidence-based decision making. However, time-critical decisions in a dynamically changing environment restrict the time available for modelers to gather supporting evidence. As infectious disease dynamics are often heterogeneous on a spatial or demographic scale, models should be resolved accordingly. In addition, with a large number of potential interventions, all scenarios can barely be computed on time, even when using supercomputing facilities. We suggest to combine complex mechanistic models with data-driven surrogate models to allow for on-the-fly model adaptations by public health experts. We build upon a spatially and demographically resolved infectious disease model and train a graph neural network for data sets representing early phases of the pandemic. The resulting networks reached an execution time of less than a second, a significant speedup compared to the metapopulation approach. The suggested approach yields potential for on-the-fly execution and, thus, integration of disease dynamics models in low-barrier website applications. For the approach to be used with decision-making, datasets with larger variance will have to be considered.
Comment: 22 pages, 8 figures