Incorporating Memory into Continuous-Time Spatial Capture-Recapture Models

Obtaining reliable and precise estimates of wildlife species abundance and distribution is essential for the conservation and management of animal populations and natural reserves. Remote sensors such as camera traps are increasingly employed to gather data on uniquely identifiable individuals. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide estimates of population and spatial density from such data. These models introduce spatial correlation between observations of the same individual through a latent activity center. However SCR models assume that observations are independent over time and space, conditional on their given activity center, so that observed sightings at a given time and location do not influence the probability of being seen at future times and/or locations. With detectors like camera traps, this is ecologically unrealistic given the smooth movement of animals over space through time. We propose a new continuous-time modeling framework that incorporates both an individual's (latent) activity center and (known) previous location and time of detection. We demonstrate that standard SCR models can produce substantially biased density estimates when there is correlation in the times and locations of detections, and that our new model performs substantially better than standard SCR models on data simulated through a movement model as well as in a real camera trap study of American martens where an improvement in model fit is observed when incorporating the observed locations and times of previous observations.
Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures