Non-parametric late-time expansion history reconstruction and implications for the Hubble tension in light of DESI

We non-parametrically reconstruct the late-time expansion history in light of the latest Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) measurements from DESI combined with various Type Ia Supernovae (SNeIa) catalogs, using interpolation through piece-wise natural cubic splines, and a reconstruction procedure based on Gaussian Processes (GPs). Applied to DESI BAO and PantheonPlus SNeIa data, both methods indicate that deviations from a reference $\Lambda$CDM model in the $z \lesssim 2$ unnormalized expansion rate $E(z)$ are constrained to be $\lesssim 10\%$, but also consistently identify two features in $E(z)$: a bump at $z \sim 0.5$, and a depression at $z \sim 0.9$, which cannot be simultaneously captured by a $w_0w_a$CDM fit. These features, which are stable against assumptions regarding spatial curvature, interpolation knots, and GP kernel, disappear if one adopts the older SDSS BAO measurements in place of DESI, and decrease in significance when replacing the PantheonPlus catalog with the Union3 and DESY5 ones. We infer $c/(r_dH_0)=29.90 \pm 0.33$ (with $r_d$ the sound horizon at baryon drag), which slightly reduces the Hubble tension and makes room for a more important role of late-time new physics in this context, albeit still remaining a sub-dominant part of the solution. If substantiated in forthcoming data releases, our results tentatively point to oscillatory/non-monotonic features in the shape of the expansion rate at $z \lesssim 2$, of potential interest for dark energy model-building.
Comment: 18 pages, 8 sub-figures arranged into 5 figures