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Streamlining Energy Transition Scenarios to Key Policy Decisions
- Publication Year :
- 2023
-
Abstract
- Uncertainties surrounding the energy transition often lead modelers to present large sets of scenarios that are challenging for policymakers to interpret and act upon. An alternative approach is to define a few qualitative storylines from stakeholder discussions, which can be affected by biases and infeasibilities. Leveraging decision trees, a popular machine-learning technique, we derive interpretable storylines from many quantitative scenarios and show how the key decisions in the energy transition are interlinked. Specifically, our results demonstrate that choosing a high deployment of renewables and sector coupling makes global decarbonization scenarios robust against uncertainties in climate sensitivity and demand. Also, the energy transition to a fossil-free Europe is primarily determined by choices on the roles of bioenergy, storage, and heat electrification. Our transferrable approach translates vast energy model results into a small set of critical decisions, guiding decision-makers in prioritizing the key factors that will shape the energy transition.
- Subjects :
- Computer Science - Machine Learning
Subjects
Details
- Database :
- arXiv
- Publication Type :
- Report
- Accession number :
- edsarx.2311.06625
- Document Type :
- Working Paper