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Fundamental Bound on Epidemic Overshoot in the SIR Model
- Source :
- Journal of the Royal Society Interface 20.209 (2023): 20230322
- Publication Year :
- 2023
-
Abstract
- We derive an exact upper bound on the epidemic overshoot for the Kermack-McKendrick SIR model. This maximal overshoot value of 0.2984... occurs at $R_0^*$ = 2.151... . In considering the utility of the notion of overshoot, a rudimentary analysis of data from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Manaus, Brazil highlights the public health hazard posed by overshoot for epidemics with $R_0$ near 2. Using the general analysis framework presented within, we then consider more complex SIR models that incorporate vaccination.<br />Comment: Main text: 7 pages + 2 figures. Supplement: 7 pages + 6 figures + code
Details
- Database :
- arXiv
- Journal :
- Journal of the Royal Society Interface 20.209 (2023): 20230322
- Publication Type :
- Report
- Accession number :
- edsarx.2303.01650
- Document Type :
- Working Paper
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2023.0322